market overview: Investor sentiment deteriorates amid broader declines

as of September 26, 2025, 7:00 AM, the cryptocurrency markets are in a sharp decline across the board, raising investor anxiety. bitcoin is trading at $158,865 USDT (-1.28%) on Upbit, and $109,329.9 USDT (-3.60%) on Binance Futures, below the psychological support level of $110,000.

buy Recommendation Score Analysis

timeframe buy Recommendation Score market Situation 06:49 -2.69 massive liquidations and plunging news undermine buying appeal 05:46 +1.03 short-term momentum neutral to slightly positive 04:45 +1.03 neutral to slightly negative flow 03:39 +1.71 long-term growth and institutional adoption expected 02:48 +0 slightly positive zone above neutral

the latest 24 hour buy recommendation score has fluctuated between -2.69 and +2.94, and is currently in negative territory. Buying sentiment has dampened significantly, especially during the early morning hours with massive liquidations.

price analysis by major coins

1. bitcoin (BTC)

  • upbit: $158,650,000 (-1.28%)
  • binance: 109,329.9 usdt (-3.60%)
  • 24-hour trading volume: $192.8 billion on Ubit, $193.5 billion on Binance

bitcoin suffered a correction of around 4.4%, falling from a high of 113,590 USDT to 108,574 USDT. Notably, the breakdown of the $110,000 support level is interpreted as a short-term bearish signal.

2. ethereum (ETH)

  • upbit: 5,665,000 KRW (-3.80%)
  • binance: 3,900.40 usdt (-6.00%)
  • 24h Vol: $32.9 billion on Binance

ethereum suffered a bigger drop than Bitcoin, threatening the $4,000 level. it is leading the bearishness in the altcoin market, which is causing concern.

3. ripple (XRP)

  • upbit: $4,000 (-3.59%)
  • binance: 2.7558 usdt (-6.48%)

XRP has been unable to escape the recent market-wide correction, despite expectations of a revenue coin conversion.

technical analysis

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

the RSIs of the major coins are now in oversold territory, falling into the 30-40 range. Ethereum in particular has fallen to the RSI of 35, raising the possibility of a short-term bounce.

MACD

the daily MACD is dead-crossing and signaling a medium-term downtrend reversal. the gap from the signal line is widening, suggesting that the bearish trend is likely to continue for the time being.

bollinger Bands

bitcoin is touching the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands (108,000 USDT), signaling an oversold signal. the band is widening, so expect increased volatility.

moving Average Lines

  • 20-day moving average: 112,500 USDT (resistance)
  • 50-day moving average: 115,000 USDT (strong resistance)
  • 200-day moving average: 105,000 USDT (support)

the price is now below the 20-day line, confirming a short-term bearish turn.

on-chain analysis

exchange inflows

net Bitcoin inflows to exchanges have increased to 27,499 BTC in the last 24 hours, indicating increased selling pressure, especially from whale investors, adding to the short-term downward pressure.

network Activity

the number of active addresses on the Bitcoin network decreased by 12% week-over-week, and transaction fees are also on the decline. this suggests that market participants are becoming more wait-and-see.

derivatives Market Analysis

funding Rate

  • BTC: 0.0055% (Neutral)
  • ETH: 0.0078% (slightly positive)
  • BNB: 0.0081% (positive)

the funding rate remains low across the board, indicating that long positions are not overheated. however, in the case of TRX, short positions are dominant at -0.0024%.

options Open Interest

there is approximately $23 billion of open interest in options at the September 27 expiration, with a put/call ratio of 0.87, slightly favoring calls. the largest amount of open interest is concentrated at the $110,000 strike price, so we expect a battle at this level.

liquidation Data

in the last 24 hours, nearly $1 billion worth of positions were liquidated, over 90% of which were long, with particularly large liquidations occurring in Ethereum and Ripple.

sentiment indicators

fear & Greed Index (FGI)

the Fear & Greed Index is now in the "Fear" zone at 44 points, down 8 points from the previous day, indicating a rapidly deteriorating sentiment.

market Dominance

  • BTC dominance: 59.2% (+0.5 points)
  • ETH dominance: 12.8% (-0.3%p)

bitcoin dominance is rising, indicating a shift of funds from altcoins to Bitcoin. this suggests that risk aversion is spreading.

key news and issue analysis

positive factors

  1. nAVER-Dunamu tie-up: Upbit operator Dunamu becomes a NAVER subsidiary, launching a Korean won stablecoin business
  2. institutional investment continues: microstrategy maintains its long Bitcoin strategy
  3. ETF inflows: $241 million net inflows into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs

negative factors

  1. u.S. government shutdown fears: Market jitters over potential federal government shutdown
  2. options expiry pressure: volatility ahead of $23 billion in options expirations
  3. macroeconomic uncertainty: PCE inflation rises and interest rate cut expectations recede

investment Strategy and Outlook

short-term outlook (1-2 weeks)

currently, the market is facing a breakdown of the $110,000 support level with further downside potential to $105,000-107,000. A short-term bounce is possible with the RSI entering the oversold zone, but a break above the $112,000 resistance is unlikely.

medium-term outlook (1-3 months)

the traditional bullish season is expected to arrive with the start of Q4. The current correction could be a buying opportunity, especially considering the historical returns in October (+23% on average).

how to manage risk

  1. buy in installments: split buy between $105,000 / $102,000 / $100,000 levels
  2. set a stop loss: reduce your position below $100,000
  3. diversify your portfolio: Maintain a 60% BTC, 25% ETH, and 15% major alt allocation

conclusion

the crypto market has entered a short-term correction, but the medium- to long-term growth prospects remain strong. with structural favorable factors such as the NAVER-Dunamu alliance and continued institutional investment, the current correction could be an entry opportunity.

rather than panic, investors should respond with sober analysis and systematic risk management. In particular, support at the $105,000 level is expected to be a critical juncture to determine the future direction.

as this is a volatile market, it is advisable to invest only a portion of the principal amount and approach it with a clear level of loss tolerance. in the long term, we believe that the development of blockchain technology and its increasing inclusion in the institutional system will continue, so a selective investment strategy centered on blue-chip projects will be effective.