the state of the cryptocurrency market at dawn on October 31, 2025

hello, crypto investors. it's 6am on October 31, 2025, and we're seeing significant changes in the domestic cryptocurrency market. today, we will analyze the current situation and investment strategies for major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, based on the latest data from Upbit and Binance exchanges.

current price analysis of major cryptocurrencies

bitcoin (BTC) Price Trends

on Ubit, Bitcoin is currently trading at $162,139,000, down -1.51% from the previous day. on the Binance futures market, it is trading at 106,549.9 USDT, down -3.67%. the 24-hour high was 111,744.0 USDT and the low was 106,200.0 USDT, with a trading volume of $22.9 billion.

calculating the kimchi premium, the price of Bitcoin on Upbit (106,544 USDT) divided by the exchange rate (1,522 KRW) and the price on Binance (106,549.9 USDT) are almost identical, meaning that the kimchi premium is currently almost zero, suggesting that domestic and foreign investor sentiment is at a similar level.

major altcoin price action

ethereum (ETH) is trading at 5,629,000 KRW, down -3.60%, while Ripple (XRP) is down -4.54% at 3,641 KRW. solana (SOL) has plunged -5.79% to 273,200 won, and Dogecoin (DOGE) is down -5.92% to 270 won.

notably, Chainlink (LINK) is the biggest loser, down -7.68%, and is down as much as -10.11% on Binance, trading at 16.436 USDT.

buy Recommendation Score Analysis Table

timeframe coin Buy Score stock Buy Score coin Market Features stock Market Features 04:41 0.67 0.17 BTC-linked stocks surge, Gen Z adoption positive positive-Negative News Equal, Neutral 03:46 0.00 1.70 neutral due to support breaks, large liquidations, etc earnings beat, price targets raised 0.01 -0.01 1.19 ETF push balanced by BlackRock sell-off tech price targets favor upside 0.01 -0.01 1.19 large Manager ETFs vs. Sell-Off Conflict positive performance, price targets continue to rise 00:51 -1.75 1.23 BTC below $10.8M, plunges after rate cut outperform, Price Target Raised

as of 04:41, the coin market buy recommendation score is 0.67, which is a modest buy recommendation from a conservative point of view due to the predominance of positive trends in the latest hourly news, such as the surge in BTC-linked stocks and the growing adoption of Gen Z cryptocurrencies, but also due to negative factors such as the FOMC shock and the breakdown of support levels in the previous hour.

technical Analysis: What's going on in the market with technical indicators

Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis

bitcoin's 24-hour price action shows a drop of approximately 5.0% from a high of 111,744 USDT to a low of 106,200 USDT. This sharp drop suggests that the price may be entering the oversold zoneon the RSI indicator. generally, an RSI below 30 is considered oversold and above 70 is considered overbought, but in the current short-term correction, the RSI is estimated to be in the 40-45 range, and any further decline may present a rebound opportunity.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator

the change in the buy recommendation score over the last three days shows that after a strong buy signal of 2.63at around 2am on October 30, it has continued to decline and is now down to 0.67. This corresponds to a dead-cross (bearish turn) signalon the MACD, which is interpreted as the short-term moving average breaking below the long-term moving average.

bollinger Bands Analysis

the decline in the price of Binance Bitcoin futures from the 24-hour high of 111,744 USDT to 106,549.9 USDT can be seen as a retracement from the top of the Bollinger Bands towards the center line. currently, the price is located near the center lineand is likely to test the lower band (near 106,200 USDT).

fundamental analysis: News and market sentiment

positive factors

the recent 1-hour news roundup (04:00-05:00) was full of positive news, including a surge in Bitcoin-linked stocks, the Flutterwave-Polygon collaboration, and the growing adoption of Gen Z cryptocurrencies. Institutionalization and real-world adoption in particular are positive signs for the long term.

in the early morning hours of October 30, the Fed FOMC rate cut and the announcement of the end of quantitative tightening (QT) caused a temporary surge in Bitcoin, while Sailer's "$150,000 by the end of 2025" prediction, stablecoin expansion, and the resumption of XRP trading were also favorable.

the negatives

however, after the FOMC, Bitcoin plunged from $110,000 to $10.6,triggering a wave of short-term arbitrage selling. ETF outflows, BlackRock selling, a break of support, and massive liquidation were among the headwinds.

most notably, the "Bitcoin Has Become Too Expensive for Retail Investors" analysis and S&P's downgrade of its strategic rating to "junk"dampened sentiment.

on-chain analytics: real-world flows as seen through blockchain data

trading Volume Analysis

binance Bitcoin futures had a 24-hour trading volume of $22 .9 billion, similar to Ethereum's $21.7 billion, which is a typical pattern during periods of high volatility, indicating that investors are actively adjusting their positions.

bitcoin trading volume on Upbit is 2,304.137 BTC / KRW 377.8 billion, indicating active trading compared to the previous day. ethereum had a trading volume of 60,356.083 ETH / KRW 348.8 billion.

large investors (whales) move in

according to the news, DAT corporate sequencetransferred 1.1 billion BTC to Coinbase, and SpaceX's sellingpressure on Bitcoinhas impacted the market. On the other hand, Michael Saylor continuesto buy, which is causing conflicting opinions among large investors.

derivatives market analysis

funding Rate Analysis

the funding rates on Binance Futures Market are as follows

  • BTC: +0.0089% (longs dominate, but at low levels)
  • ETH: +0.0028% (almost neutral)
  • XRP: +0.0025% (almost neutral)
  • BNB: -0.0069% (short dominant)
  • LINK: -0.0133% (short dominant)

while Bitcoin's funding rate is positive, it is very low at +0.0089%, so there is no overheating of long positions. rather, altcoins (BNB, LINK, etc.) have negative funding rates, indicating that short positionsare increasing, suggesting that many investors are expecting a market-wide decline.

analyzing liquidation data

the news recently reported "massive liquidations despite rate cuts" and "long liquidations," meaning that over-leveraged long positions were being unwound, causing a sharp drop. a cascade of liquidations appears to have occurred.

options market trends

while direct put/call ratio data was not available, the news mentions of "weakening investor sentiment," "hawkish comments," and "ETF outflows" suggest that demand for put options (downside bets) may have increased.

analyzing investor sentiment indicators

estimating the Crypto Fear & Greed Index

while no direct Fear & Greed Index numbers were provided, we can analyze the change in buy recommendation scores and the tone of the news:

  • at 02:50 on October 30: Buy score of 2.63 → estimated Greed zone
  • at 00:51 on October 31: Buy score -1.75 → entering the Fear zone
  • currently at 04:41 on October 31: Buy score of 0.67 → Neutral to slightly Greedy

in other words, we estimate that the market went from extreme greed right after the FOMC, dropped sharply into the Fear zone, and is now recovering to the 40-50 point range (neutral zone).

market participant sentiment

the emergence of phrases such as "Bitcoin becomes too expensive for retail investors," "FOMO grows, price falls further," and "bull market at risk of ending" in news headlines shows the growing anxiety of retail investors.

on the other hand, there were also comments such as "bottom buying opportunity", "recommend buying low", and "expect a rebound ", indicating that the market is currently lacking direction.

altcoin market trends

notable altcoins

  • ripple (XRP): $3,641 (-4.54%) upbeat, short-term decline despite SwissBulion's introduction of physical payments
  • chainlink (LINK): biggest loser at KRW 25,020 (-7.68%), short dominance with funding ratio of -0.0133
  • solana (SOL): kRW 273,200 (-5.79%), remains the leading altcoin with a market capitalization of KRW 141 trillion
  • dogecoin (DOGE): kRW 270 (-5.92%), a general correction in the memecoin market

stablecoin Trends

  • tether (USDT): 1,522 KRW (+1.87%), weaker against a stronger dollar
  • USDC: KRW 1,522 (+1.87%), same movement as USDT

an increase in stablecoin prices means an increase in the KRW/dollar exchange rate, which indicates either a weaker Korean won or a stronger dollar.

overall outlook and investment strategy

short-term outlook (1-3 days)

bitcoin is currently in a correction phase. the 105,000106,000 USDTon Binance isan important support level, andabreakbelow it could lead to a further decline to102,000103,000 USDT.

Considering the oversold RSI entry and the normalization of the funding rate, a short-term bounce is possible. with a buy recommendation score of 0.67, which is neutral to slightly positive, a split-buy strategyremains valid.

medium-term outlook (1-2 weeks)

Despite the macroeconomic good newsof the FOMC rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening, the market has already shelved it and profit-taking has taken place.

If ETF flows turn back to inflows, we could find upside momentum, but if outflows persist, a further correction is inevitable.

longer-term outlook (1-3 months)

the fundamentals remain strong, includingMichael Saylor's "$150,000 by the end of 2025" prediction, growing institutional adoption, and expanding stablecoin infrastructure.

however, as with the "Bitcoin is going to Wall Street and governments" analysis, volatility could increase as institutional investors become more heavily weighted. long-term investors can use the current correction as a buying opportunity to split.

what to do when investing

  1. avoidleveraged trading: This is a volatile period, and excessive leverage can lead to liquidation
  2. split-buy strategy: buy in stages instead of committing all your funds at once
  3. set a stop-loss: consider a stop-loss on a break of 105,000 USDT (approx. 160,000,000 KRW) for Bitcoin
  4. check the fundamentals: constantly monitor news and ETF fund flows

closing thoughts

in the early hours of October 31, 2025, the crypto markets are correcting on profit-taking following the favorable FOMC news. However, the long-term uptrend is still in place, and the current consolidationcould be a strategic buyingopportunity.

we encourage investors to be cautious and deliberate in their investments, taking into account technical indicators, on-chain data, and derivatives flows. cryptocurrency markets trade around the clock, so it's important to make a data-driven, cool-headed decisionrather than reacting emotionally.

investment decisions are your own responsibility, and this analysis is for guidance only. always remember to diversify and manage your risk.