I. Introduction: The massive inflection point in the early morning market and data-driven market entry point analysis (focusing on Upbit spot)

as of 07:00 UTC on October 24, 2025, the global cryptocurrency market had regained its full bullish momentum following dramatic political and institutional upheavals. In particular, the pardon of Binance founder Zhao Changpeng (CZ) by former US President Trump, the biggest news in US politics, and the approval of Hong Kong's Solana (SOL) spot ETF, which signaled its entry into the Asian system, provided the market with strong buying motivation.

on Upbit, the benchmark for the South Korean spot market, BTC traded at KRW165.3 million, up +1.32% from the previous day. However, the upward momentum was more pronounced in the overseas derivatives market than in the spot market. in the Binance futures market, BTC is up +2.48%, while Ethereum (ETH) is up +2.50%, outperforming the Upbit spot price (ETH +0.31%). This divergence between spot and futures suggests that the price gains in the early hours of the morning were driven by aggressive position building using leverage, meaning that more volatility is likely in the near term.

in this report, we take an in-depth look at how the megaton news of CZ pardon and ETF approval from a fundamental analysis (FA) perspective has been reflected in the actual market microstructure, especially in funding costs and trading volumes in the derivatives market, and diagnose the technical position and near-term outlook of key tokens such as BTC, ETH, and SOL based on the upbeat spot market.

II. Quantitative Market Sentiment and Investment Grade Change Analysis: The 4.14-point Surge and Cautiousness

the market's buy recommendation score history clearly shows a sharp change in investor sentiment in the early morning market. just a few hours earlier, at 21:39 on October 23, 2025, a negative view of the market was dominant, with a Buy Recommendation Score of -0.96, driven by a preponderance of negative factors such as support breakdown concerns and ETF outflows.

A. Detailed analysis of the evolution of the Buy recommendation score over time: explosive shock and rapid cooling

At 05:36 am, when the news of CZ pardon and SOL ETF approval was concentrated, the buy recommendation score rose vertically to 4.14 points, reaching the peak of "strong buy sentiment." This dramatic jump was due to the simultaneous impact of three strong favorable news: the Trump administration's CZ pardon, Bitcoin breaking $111K, and the Hong Kong Solana ETF approval, indicating that market participants viewed the structural changes of removing regulatory risks and accelerating institutionalization as very positive.

Table 1: October 23-24, 2025 Buy Recommendation Score Changes and Market Interpretation

time (KST) buy Recommendation Score (Max 8 points) key Change Factors market Sentiment Interpretation 2025-10-24 06:45 1.22 BTC below $100k warning, bearish sustainability vs. mixed Trump pardon-ETF approval news neutral to slightly positive, conservative buy judgment 2025-10-24 05:36 4.14 trump CZ pardon, BTC breaks $111K, Hong Kong SOL ETF approval, etc greed Sentiment Reaches New Highs 2025-10-24 04:41 1.20 trump Pardon Favorable vs. North Korea Hacking Concerns cautiousness mixed after positive shocks 2025-10-24 03:39 0.53 north Korea hacking concerns and slowing buying negatives vs. Trump pardon - mixed news for BTC breakout extremely Cautious Entry (Cautious Entry) 2025-10-23 21:39 -0.96 fears of support breakdown, ETF outflows, mining debt surge, etc. dominate negativity buy Negative (Fear/Extreme Fear)

B. Implications of a conservative correction as the bulls run out of steam

however, the strong buy sentiment of 4.14 was quickly revised down to 1.22 at 06:45, just over an hour later. This sharp cooling suggests either short-term profit-taking after the strong news was quickly priced in, or doubts about the sustainability of the news came into play.

at the same time, the market is still cognizant of potential downside risks: as the 'BTC below $100,000 warning' article and concerns about the sustainability of the long-term bearishness mixed in with the good news, the Extreme Greed state quickly retreated into Neutral and Conservative Buy territory. In addition, news of a slowdown in Microstrategy's (MSTR) BTC longs indirectly indicates that the buying momentum of large institutions with 'Buy the Dip' strategies is waning, reflecting concerns about the market's weakening internal support. this extreme volatility in sentiment scores shows that the market is currently in a sensitive phase where it is overreacting to short-term news events.

III. Dissecting the derivatives market microstructure: diagnosing the leverage and funding cost paradox

the health of the derivatives market is crucial in determining whether the rise in spot prices is sustainable. since the early morning rally was driven by leveraged markets, it is important to analyze the funding rate to assess whether long positions are overheating and the stability of the market structure.

Table 2: Comparison of Upbit/Binance performance and derivatives metrics for major cryptocurrencies (24h)

cryptocurrency Upbit Current Price (KRW) Upbit Price Change (24h) Binance Futures Price (USDT) Binance Price Change (24h) Funding Rate futures 24h Volume (USD) BCH 1,630,000,000 +1.32 bCH +0.0002 -0.0002 14.eTH ETH 5,786,000 +0.0002% 0.0002 3,835.17 +0.0009 +0.0009 15.bNB BNB - - bNBX +0.0134 -0.0134 2.bNB SOL 284,800 +0.0134 - - - - XRP xRP 3,599 +0.45 2.xRP +0.0033 +0.0033 979.20M BCH bCH -3.07 0.bCH 31376 -1.67 -0.0213 124.12M

A. Funding Rate Analysis: a Healthy Rise Without Longs Overheating

the most important thing to note is that BTC's funding rate has remained virtually neutral at -0.0002% despite the significant +2.48% gain. Typically, when the price surges, the funding rate quickly turns positive as longs pile in. the fact that the funding rate remains negative or neutral means that the rise was not driven by overly leveraged long position building, but was accompanied by the closing of existing short positions (short squeeze), or that large whales are buying spot and selling futures to control the price gap (basis trade). this is a very positive structural sign that the risk of a sharp drop (long squeeze) due to long position liquidation is low in the near term.

B. Concentration of the CZ Amnesty Effect: BNB's Strongly Negative Funding Ratio

BNB was the most direct beneficiary of the CZ amnesty news, surging +5.22% in 24 hours, the best performance among the major coins. Despite this, BNB has a strongly negative funding ratio of -0.0134%. this phenomenon can be interpreted in two ways. first, it means that large short positions were liquidated just before the surge, but new short positions were immediately entered, keeping the funding rate low, or second, it means that institutional investors are finding it very cheap to build long positions. in the latter case, we believe that the environment is very favorable for building a long position on BNB's improving fundamentals (de-risking CZ).

C. Explosive interest in Ethereum (ETH): futures volume exceeds BTC

ethereum (ETH) saw a record $15 billion (15.00B) in 24-hour futures trading volume, narrowly surpassing Bitcoin's $14.54 billion (14.54B). While the spot price of ETH is only up +0.31% on Upbit, this overwhelming liquidity in the futures market suggests that traders are taking more aggressive leveraged bets on ETH versus BTC. this suggests that the futures market is strongly pricing in potentially favorable technical news, such as expectations of an Ethereum spot ETF approval or a Dencun upgrade, and suggests that ETH's price momentum could outpace BTC in the near term.

D. TRX Red Flags: Market Retracement and Significant Downside Pressure

tron (TRX) has been running counter to the bullish momentum of the market as a whole, losing -3.07% on Upbit and -1.67% on Binance futures. More worryingly, TRX's funding rate of -0.0213% is the strongest negative value among the major coins. this strong decoupling at a time when the market as a whole is favoring long positions clearly indicates either localized selling pressure or a serious individual bad news story. A high negative funding ratio indicates either an overwhelming dominance of short positions in the futures market or a massive liquidation of long positions, which we believe is a very serious warning sign for TRX investors.

IV. Technical and Fundamental Analysis of Upbit Spot Price by Key Coins (TA Inference)

we analyze the technical position and momentum of major coins based on the Upbit spot price, and indirectly infer technical indicators such as Moving Average (MA), RSI, and Bollinger Bands by utilizing 24-hour price ranges and news data.

A. Bitcoin (BTC): testing support at $165 million

the current price of BTC on Upbit is KRW 165,300,000, up +1.32%. The Binance futures price ($109,759.6) is close to the 24-hour high of $111,240.0 and a significant distance from the 24-hour low of $106,916.9.

technical momentum inference: The fact that the price is currently hovering at the upper end of the 24-hour range suggests that the short-term moving average (MA) is pointing upward, and that buying momentum is prevailing. this means that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is likely forming a bullish zone above 50. the $106,916.9 level should act as a strong short-term support that formed after the early morning surge.

bollinger band inference: the high volatility of $4,323.1 in the 24 hours suggests that the Bollinger Bands were stretched by a strong political/institutional shock (CZ amnesty, $111K breakout), and the high volatility is likely to continue for the time being. A breakout above the $111,240.0 resistance level will be a key indicator to determine the near-term direction.

B. Solana (SOL): the Asian ETF effect materializing

solana (SOL) is up +4.28% at KRW 284,800 on the Upbit spot market, second only to BNB (+5.22% overseas futures) on the back of the CZ amnesty, and uniquely strong within the Upbit spot market.

this strong spot strength was directly triggered by the news of Hong Kong's approval of a Solana spot ETF, which amplified expectations that SOL will emerge as a key channel for institutional capital inflows in Asia. SOL's high growth rate and significant upbeat trading volume (459,724.389 billion) is a clear indication that investors in the Korean market recognize SOL as the next institutional coin after Bitcoin and Ethereum.

C. Ethereum (ETH): Analyzing the gap between spot weakness and futures strength

ethereum has seen a relatively modest spot gain of KRW 5,786,000, +0.31% on Upbit, while it is up +2.50% on the Binance futures market. The stark contrast is that futures trading volume has exceeded BTC.

this spot-futures decoupling suggests that either South Korean spot investors are not as confident in ETH's short-term price elasticity as BTC or SOL, or that institutional longs and leveraged bets on Ethereum are primarily taking place in offshore derivatives markets. the spot price remains at $3,835.17, down from a 24-hour high of $3,933.40, suggesting that some momentum has been lost in the face of resistance at the near-term high.

D. Ripple (XRP) and Chainlink (LINK): looking Forward to the Next Level in the Futures Market

ripple (XRP) traded at $3,599, +0.45% on Upbit, but showed much more momentum on Binance futures, up +2.14%. the funding ratio is +0.0033%, with long positions dominating. this is a result of the derivatives market reflecting market expectations that XRP is attempting to make the leap to the "next level" as regulatory risks are being addressed.

chainlink (LINK) also saw a modest +0.15% gain on Upbit, but was up +2.34% on Binance futures, with a strong long position dominance of +0.0100% on funding rate, indirectly suggesting that LINK is attracting institutional interest and leveraged buying as an essential infrastructure coin in the altcoin bull market.

V. Market Outlook and Risk Management Strategy for Q4 2025

the dramatic rebound in the early morning market is attributed to strong fundamental factors (FA), and the market's short-term momentum has been secured. However, the fact that the buying sentiment quickly corrected from 4.14 to 1.22 proves that short-term volatility will remain high, and the market's cautiousness remains deep.

A. Expected near-term direction: limited bullishness and a break above $111K resistance

  1. drivers to the upside: trump's CZ pardon is more than just a political event, it signals a possible sharp shift in the US institutional stance towards cryptocurrencies. this, coupled with the White House confirmation of the US-China summit, adds to the expectations of easing geopolitical risks and is a strong driver for BTC to support the $110,000 level.

  2. technical scenario: BTC is expected to continue to battle between the near-term support at $106,916.9 (24-hr low) and the near-term resistance at $111,240.0 (24-hr high). with the Funding Ratio remaining healthy negative (-0.0002%), further upside to $115K is possible on a successful retest of $111K, provided there is no long position overheating.

  3. expected Direction: while profit-taking pressure will be inevitable after the strong news dissipates, the market is likely to remain **Slightly Bullish** as structural support in the form of institutionalization expectations is firmly in place. the market is looking for a longer-term upward trajectory rather than a short-term correction.

B. Key risk factors reaffirmed

  1. lingering psychological warning: Despite the market's strong rebound, negative headlines such as "BTC set to break below $100,000" and "BTC bearish streak lengthening" are still mixed in the market. this indicates that institutional and retail investors are taking advantage of the short-term upside, while not completely ruling out the possibility of structural bearishness.

  2. institutional buying slows down: Microstrategy's (MSTR) news of a slowdown in BTC buying suggests that large institutional money inflows are slowing down. from an on-chain perspective, this translates into a red flag that could weaken the market's underlying buying base.

  3. security and geopolitical risks: Security concerns such as "North Korean hackers reveal shocking scope of hack" expose fundamental vulnerabilities in the crypto market and could act as a catalyst for deteriorating investor sentiment during a price correction.

C. Investment Strategy Recommendations

  • Strengthening fundamentals for BNB/SOL: BNB and SOL have secured clear fundamental improvements with the CZ amnesty and Hong Kong ETF approval, respectively. Regardless of short-term volatility, the medium-term momentum is very likely to be maintained, so you may want to consider an overweight strategy for your portfolio.

  • Manage BTC/ETH positions: ETH's futures market volume has exceeded BTC, indicating high leverage expectations for ETH. As BTC and ETH remain volatile, a strategy that capitalizes on the current situation where funding rates are not overheated and reenters long positions cautiously during short-term corrections is valid.

  • Recognize the risks of TRX: TRX (-3.07%, -0.0213%), which has posted a negative funding rate while going against the overall market trend, is likely reflecting strong individual headwinds or is experiencing a large-scale exodus. New investments in these stocks are extremely risky and should be watched or avoided.