we analyze why Tesla's full self-driving car is nine years away and the potential for robotaxi commercialization. we compare Elon Musk's promises with Weimo's Level 4 technology and examine liability issues.
nine years of unfulfilled Tesla promises
elon Musk has been promising Tesla consumers and investors a future of fully autonomous driving since 2016, when he announced that Tesla already had the hardware and sensors to achieve full autonomy: eight cameras, 12 ultrasonic sensors, and radar.
the announcement that the hardware was already capable of Level 5 autonomy sent many people into a frenzy, as the company promised to demonstrate fully autonomous driving from LA to New York without a human driver by the end of 2017. they even envisioned that the cars could be used as shared taxis, like Airbnb, to earn extra income.
but nine years later, Tesla's self-driving technology is still rated as Level 2. compare that to Google's Waymo, which is now Level 4 and offers paid robo-taxi services in five major U.S. cities.
tesla Autopilot and lawsuits
tesla has faced numerous lawsuits for its unfulfilled self-driving promises. in 2019, the company was found 33 percent liable in a fatal crash. in California, a class action lawsuit was certified against Elon Musk for eight years of misleading information about Autopilot.
in France, the company was ordered to stop making deceptive claims about autonomous driving, with a fine of 50,000 euros per day for each violation. tesla lawyers have argued that Musk's comments were bravado and hyperbole, but the company has been criticized for the contradiction of emphasizing its technological superiority when selling cars and then deflecting blame when an accident occurs, saying it's just a driving aid.
could robotaxis be a turning point for Tesla?
at the June 2025 shareholder meeting, Elon Musk laid out the future of Tesla's robotaxis. the idea was that customer-owned vehicles could be operated like an Airbnb and earn up to $30,000 per year.
the announcement gave Tesla investors new hope. since the start of Trump's second term, Tesla's image has taken a hit, with Elon Musk's public antics causing sales to plummet in Europe, and global sales dropped a whopping 13 percent in the second quarter of 2025.
robo-taxis could be a breakthrough for Tesla: even if the average consumer doesn't buy a Tesla, a fully autonomous robotaxi could help overcome the sales slump.
weimo's quiet victory, level 4 autonomous driving
the problem is that Musk's word has too often not been his bond. at Tesla Autonomy Day in 2019, he said he would have 1 million robotaxis in service by 2020, but that was also an unrealized exaggeration.
in June 2025, Tesla launched a robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, but for safety reasons, only 10 cars operated with a Tesla employee in the passenger seat, and they only drove on freeways to avoid intersections. furthermore, the service was only available to a handful of influencers.
google's self-driving car project, Waymo, on the other hand, has been quietly leading the way. after debuting its first robotaxi in San Francisco three years ago, Waymo now operates more than 1,500 taxis in five major U.S. cities, providing more than 250,000 paid rides per week.
while Tesla's self-driving technology is rated as Level 2, Waymo's is rated as Level 4. waymo has much more expensive sensors and radar than Tesla, and a remote driver monitors the vehicle and provides driving assistance in case of problems. and Waymo doesn't have a second driver for safety.
from marketing hype to legal liability
the problem lies in the hyperbole that Elon Musk has been engaging in. back in the 2010s, when the industry was full of rosy predictions about autonomous driving, everyone in the industry was talking about the hype, but over time, many companies have tempered their hype with reality.
some, like Waymo, have even come close to fulfilling those predictions, but Musk is the exception. that's because he still hasn't revised his predictions in the slightest.
and when he has, they've often been outrageous lies or excessive boasting, like Hyperloop or federal budget cuts through DOGE. The same goes for robotaxis.
so far, Musk's comments have been dismissed as nothing more than marketing hyperbole, which is common in the tech industry, but now that autonomous driving has been a hot topic for nearly a decade and some companies are actually delivering on the hype, some are demanding accountability for their marketing statements.
the current lawsuits and warnings surrounding Tesla are about holding the company accountable for this hyperbole: when it sells cars, it emphasizes the ability to drive on autopilot and fully autonomous driving, but when someone dies, it's the driver's fault and Tesla is called out for the contradiction of saying it's just a driving aid.
elon Musk may indeed achieve fully autonomous driving and introduce robotaxis, just as he has done with Tesla and SpaceX, innovations that will amaze people around the world. but we can also deny that possibility because of Musk's history of broken promises and lies.
what we do know is that Waymo, which has been quietly building technology behind the scenes, is far more advanced in robotaxis and autonomous driving than the noisy Musk and Tesla. of course, Weimo is still a long way from turning a profit, given the high cost per vehicle.
robo-taxis and full autonomous driving are now at the stage of "can they be commercialized". even if Weimo is technologically ahead of the curve, the winner of this market will be the first company to achieve economics and commercialization.
equally important is the issue of liability for accidents that may occur when full autonomy is achieved. the lawsuits surrounding Tesla highlight issues on both fronts. it remains to be seen if Tesla can overcome these challenges and continue to innovate and dominate the autonomous driving and robotaxi market.
FAQs
Q1. What is Tesla's current level of autonomous driving?
A1. Tesla's autonomous driving technology is currently rated at Level 2. this is a driving assistance system that requires the driver to keep their hands on the wheel at all times. waymo, on the other hand, is rated at Level 4, which means it is capable of fully autonomous driving under certain conditions.
Q2. Why did the Tesla Autopilot lawsuit happen?
A2. Tesla is facing several lawsuits for overstating its self-driving capabilities. in 2019, it was found 33 percent liable in a fatal accident, a class action lawsuit was certified in California, and it was ordered to stop making deceptive claims in France.
Q3. When will Tesla's robotaxis be commercially available?
A3. Elon Musk has made several promises about when robotaxis will be commercialized that have not been kept. They are currently being piloted in Austin with 10 cars, but it is a limited service with a second driver. this is in contrast to Waymo, which already operates more than 1500 vehicles in five cities.
Q4. How does Waymo compare to Tesla's self-driving technology?
A4. Waymo is Level 4 autonomous driving, with more than 250,000 paid trips per week in five major U.S. cities. tesla is Level 2, which still requires driver supervision. waymo uses more expensive sensors and radar and has a remote monitoring system.
Q5. What is your outlook for investing in Tesla?
A5. Tesla is facing sluggish sales and legal risks, but robotaxis could be a new growth engine if successful. however, there is a lot of uncertainty due to Elon Musk's controversial remarks and delays in technology development. careful consideration is needed before investing.
key takeaways and related articles
tesla's full autonomous driving has been a promise for nine years. while Waymo has achieved real-world commercialization, Tesla is mired in lawsuits and controversy. Will robotaxis be a turning point for Tesla, or will it end up as another unfulfilled promise?
how do you rate Tesla's self-driving technology? share your thoughts in the comments. and be sure to subscribe for the latest news on autonomous driving and electric cars.