it's 9am on November 15, 2025, and the cryptocurrency markets are showing extreme chaos and disparity. while global markets have been engulfed in panic selling and key support levels have collapsed, the local upbit market has experienced a "decoupling" phenomenon, rising slightly regardless.

this report takes an in-depth look at the dangerous imbalances in the current market, Bitcoin's catastrophic technical breakdown, the capitulation of the derivatives market, and the dynamics of one particular altcoin that is standing alone in the midst of it all.

I. November 15, 2025, 09:00: The Dangerous Collision of 'Extreme Fear' and 'Kimchi Premium'

analyzing the current market data, two completely different markets exist.

  1. global market (Binance): bitcoin (BTC) has plummeted -4.14% in 24 hours and is trading at $95,160.08. ethereum (ETH) is also down -2.40% to $3,139.02. there is a strong sell-off across the market, ranging from -2% to -5%.

  2. domestic markets (upbeat): bitcoin (BTC) is actually up +0.47%, trading at $144.29 million. ethereum (ETH) is also up +0.78% to $4.75 million.

what the 4% Kimchi Premium Spike Means

these extreme price divergences have caused the "Kimchi Premium" (KMP) to spike to dangerous levels, with Bitcoin at around +3.8%, Ethereum at +4.2%, and Solana at +4.1%.

this is more than just an arbitrage opportunity, it's a red flag of a 'market perception gap'. while global investors are engaging in "panic selling" in response to six-month lows and the breakdown of key support levels, domestic investors are either misreading the decline as a "bargain hunting opportunity" or failing to recognize the severity of the global market.

historically, KMP widening of 4% or more in a global bear market is a 'ticking time bomb'. if the global decline continues, this 4% price gap could lead to the collapse of the KMP itself, i.e., a much faster and more painful decline and convergence of domestic currency prices than in global markets.

investor sentiment: 'extreme fear' worse than FTX collapse

investor sentiment in global markets is already in a state of collapse. the Fear & Greed Index for cryptocurrencies has plummeted to 15-16 points.

not only is this the lowest level in seven months, but it's a deeper level of fear than the roughly 20 points seen during the FTX debacle, which symbolized the market crash. with Bitcoin below even the psychological support level of $95,000, the market has effectively entered the 'Capitulation' phase. 'Extreme Fear' is usually interpreted as a sign of a market bottom, but when all technical and on-chain indicators are pointing to the downside, as they are now, it could be just the first step in the capitulation of the 'Weak Hands'.

II. Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Breaks Key Support at 365-Day Moving Average

the current decline is more likely to signal the breakdown of a long-term trend than a simple correction.

break below the 365-day moving average

the most damning sign is that Bitcoin broke below its 365-day annual moving average (MA), which was the key reason for the Buy Recommendation (-2.54) at around 6:43am today.

the breakdown of the 365-day MA, not even the 200-day MA, means that the price is starting to fall below not only the short-term speculative forces, but also the average buying price of long-term investors over a year or more. this is a powerful psychological and technical bifurcation that can be interpreted as a "complete breakout of the trend" or a sign of a full-blown bear market.

the chief analyst at CryptoQuant described Bitcoin's break below the 365-day moving average as "historically a very difficult area to recover from." If this breakdown is confirmed, the next technical support is expected to be at $92,000, followed by the $72,000 level. upbit's current price of $144 million does not reflect this global collapse scenario at all.

bollinger bands and indicators

key technical indicators are also sending out 'sell signals' in unison.

  • bollinger Bands: bitcoin has already broken below the middle line of the weekly Bollinger Bands ($113,744) and has also broken through the lower band ($103,752). The current price ($95,160) is below both the 'Black Friday' breakdown point in October and the lowest level since May.

  • RSI, MACD: As stated in the rationale for the buy recommendation score (-4.38) at 8:44am today, "RSI, MACD, and volume are all reinforcing near-term bearishness, with no buy signal". this means that despite being in oversold territory, there is absolutely no rebound momentum.

furthermore, this plunge in the crypto market has been accompanied by a decline in the Nasdaq and tech stocks. equity markets are also under pressure as "AI chip depreciation controversy" has dampened investor sentiment (Buy Recommendation Score -1.05), and risky asset markets as a whole are under pressure as Fed rate cut expectations fade.

III. Derivatives and on-chain analytics: KRW 1.8 trillion long position liquidation and market capitulation

behind the plunge is a massive capitulation of speculative capital.

1. massive long position chaining liquidation

over the past 24 hours, the breakdown of the $99,000-$100,000 psychological support level has triggered a "cascade liquidation": more than $1.24 billion in long positions (long positions) across the cryptocurrency market have been forced to liquidate, with Bitcoin longs alone accounting for $273 million of this.

2. funding Rate Turns Negative

the extreme bearish sentiment in the market is also reflected in the funding rate. the perpetual futures funding rate has turned negative (-0.0038%), meaning that short (sell) bets have become overwhelmingly dominant over long positions, and now short position holders have to pay interest (funding fees) to long position holders.

3. open Interest (OI) Plummets and Options Market Trends

speculative capital is fleeing the markets entirely. total open interest in the futures and options markets has plunged to around $32.4 billion, the lowest level since May.

in the options market, demand for puts (bets to go down) is dominant, with the Put/Call Ratio spiking. the "Max Pain" point for the $4.04 billion in options expiring on November 14 was $105,000, but demand for the $90,000 and $95,000 puts exploded as prices collapsed below $95,000.

long positions closed out, negative funding costs, open interest plummeted, and demand for puts exploded. all four of these indicators are pointing in one direction: down.

4. on-chain analysis: Long-term holders (LTH) sell off

the most worrisome indicator came from on-chain data. long-term holders (LTH), often referred to as the "diamond hands" of the market, are joining the sell-off.

According to Glassnode and CryptoQuant data, long-term holders have sold around 815,000 BTC (valued at around $79 billion) in the last 30 days, the largest long-term holder selloff since January 2024. They are abandoning their $100,000 defenses and accelerating their profit-taking, which, coupled with institutional outflows through spot ETFs ($278 million net outflows), is maximizing the selling pressure.

IV. Current Market Sentiment: Buy Recommendation Score of -4.38 (Extreme Fear)

the history of the Buy Recommendation Score clearly shows how market sentiment collapsed in just a few hours. this shows how technical indicators and news are reflected in the score in real time.

index hour buy Recommendation Score reason 0 2025-11-15T08:44:02.920816 -4.38 in the last hour, Bitcoin has entered extreme fear territory with a series of sharp drops of 4-9% and a breakdown of key support levels. RSI, MACD, and volume are all reinforcing short-term bearishness, with no buy signals. 1 2025-11-15T07:39:54.507728 -3.82 news within the last hour has seen Bitcoin hit a six-month low on weakening Fed cut expectations. Technical support is low, and downside pressure is maintained by low volume. 2 2025-11-15T06:43:20.835729 -2.54 recent news within the last hour has Bitcoin at 6-month lows and a breakdown of the 365-day moving average, increasing the risk of a further correction. 3 2025-11-15T05:50:26.407138 -2.56 in the latest hourly news, Grant Cardon's $329 billion hybrid fund investment and microstrategy selloff were cross-reported. market sentiment is below neutral. 4 2025-11-15T04:46:49.779973 -3.23 news in the last hour or so has been dominated by analysis that Bitcoin has entered a "panic" phase, with a 20% drop from its highs.

in just 4 hours, the score plunged vertically from -3.23 to -4.38. The reasons for the drop are clear: (1) macroeconomic (weakening Fed expectations), (2) technical (365-day moving average breakdown), and (3) psychological (6-month low and $95,000 breakdown).

the current reading of -4.38 signifies "no buy signal" and "extreme fear" and warns that even shorting a technical bounce is extremely risky.

V. Market Specific Trends (1): Why XRP fell despite the debut of the largest ETF in history

ironically, this morning's national news (Index 1) reported "XRP ETF makes record debut," which is true.

on November 13, Canary Capital's spot XRP ETF (ticker: XRPC) officially launched on the Nasdaq, with net inflows of approximately $245 million to $250 million on its first day of trading. Trading volume also hit $59 million, making it the "best debut performance" of more than 900 ETFs launched in 2025.

despite these record-breaking numbers, however, the global price of XRP has plunged 8% in the last 24 hours (-2.11% on Binance) in a classic "sell the news" pattern.

The reasons for XRP's decline are clear

  1. macro market gravity: The day the XRPC ETF launched was the same day that there were $866 million in net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs and a market-wide "panic".

  2. news bubble: The XRP price had already surged more than 200% in 2025 in anticipation of the ETF approval. when the good news materialized, arbitrage selling poured in.

  3. the flow reversed: While the XRP ETF's $2.5 billion inflows were impressive, they couldn't overcome the massive outflows of $8.7 billion that left Bitcoin ETFs on the same day.

xRP's current +0.70% gain (to $3,435) on Upbit shows that only domestic investors are buying in response to the 'ETF approved' headline, even though the global market is already 'selling on the news'. this has led to a kimchi premium of about 3.5%, which could lead to bigger losses for domestic investors in the event of a KMP collapse.

VI. Market Specific Trends (2): ZEC (Zcash), +18.87% surge on its own, 4 key drivers

in the midst of this widespread market meltdown, one asset is bucking the market. ZEC (Zcash) has surged +18.87% in 24 hours to $609.50 on Binance. ZEC has been on a phenomenal rally, rising over 1,000% in two months from around $50-70 in mid-September.

there are four powerful drivers behind this run-up.

  1. institutional Buy-in: biotech company 'Leap Therapeutics', rebranded as 'Cypherpunk Technologies', raised $58.8 million in funding led by Winklevoss Capital, which injected $50 million to buy 203,775 ZEC ($245.37), a strong "spot demand" signal that the company has directly purchased a large amount of a particular coin and moved it into the company's main treasury, rather than indirectly investing through an ETF. This purchase amounts to 1.25% of the circulating supply.

  2. privacy Narrative and Supply Shock (On-chain): The amount of ZEC deposited in the 'Shielded Pool', a key feature of Zcash, has surpassed 30% of the total supply for the first time ever, meaning that a third of the total ZEC supply is effectively 'locked up', causing a 'supply shock' where the amount of supply in circulation on exchanges is sharply reduced. This creates an environment where a small amount of buying is enough to drive a large price increase.

  3. impending network upgrade (Catalyst): Zcash is scheduled for Network Upgrade 6.1 (NU 6.1) on November 23, and a "halving" is also scheduled for November, when mining rewards will be reduced by 50%. the upgrade and halving are two powerful headwinds coming at the same time.

  4. similarity to Bitcoin (Tokenomics): ZEC shares the same 21 million total supply, proof-of-work (PoW) method, and four-year halving cycle as Bitcoin. ZEC has succeeded in uniquely positioning itself as "Bitcoin's value-storing properties + optional privacy features" and is gaining institutional traction with a "cryptocurrency" narrative that goes beyond a simple privacy coin.

VII: market Outlook and Investment Strategy at the End of November 2025

to summarize the current market situation: Bitcoin's long-term technical support has been broken, even long-term holders have joined the sell-off, and the derivatives market has capitulated.

1. short- to medium-term outlook: Downward pressure prevails

in the short term, further downside pressure on Bitcoin is very high. With the breakdown of the 365-day moving average, we should keep an eye open for a decline to the next support level of $92,000.

however, the Fear Greed Index of '15' suggests that the market is already pricing in the worst case scenario: 'Extreme fear' has always been an accumulation opportunity for the 'strong hands' to take volume from the 'weak hands'.

2. key strategy: kimchi premium risk management and differentiation

  • kimchiPremium Risk Alert: The current 4% kimchi premium is very risky. upbit's flat performance (+0.47%) is an 'optical illusion' masking the global plunge (-4.14%). if global Bitcoin falls further to $92,000 and the KMP converges to 0%, local investors could suffer a double loss of (global decline + 4% KMP). cashing out and refraining from chase buying is urgently needed.

  • differentiate Altcoins: As we saw with the XRP ETF, it's easy for individual good news to get buried when the market as a whole collapses. However, as in the case of ZEC, assets that have the trifecta of (1) strong institutional spot buying, (2) structurally reduced supply (30% anonymous pool), and (3) an impending major upgrade (halving) can "decouple" from the market.

finally, we are in a "buy signal absent" zone, as the Buy Recommendation Score of -4.38 warns. risk management is a priority, and we need to see the market stabilize rather than rush to buy the lows. if you do consider a buy, it should be a selective approach to assets with a clear and strong individual narrative (alpha), such as ZEC, rather than following the market as a whole.