1. introduction: Market Fear and Data Gaps

on November 22, 2025, the global financial markets and cryptocurrency ecosystem were put to the ultimate test. as Bitcoin (BTC) plunged below the $100,000 mark - a psychological and technical threshold - and into the depths of a bear market, the South Korean market has been experiencing bizarre price action due to a combination of a unique "kimchi premium" and isolated liquidity from retail investors. the technical analysis "Death Cross" that occurred on November 17 was more than just a crossover on a chart, it was a catalyst that drove market participants' sentiment into "extreme fear.

using the Upbit price as a reference point, we will dissect the macroeconomic pressures that are currently dominating the market, the hidden leverage structure of the derivatives market, and the silence of the whales pointed out by on-chain data. In particular, we aim to provide institutional-grade investment insights for the end of 2025 by going beyond mere market intermediation and delving deeper into the recent market buzzwords of decoupling from Nasdaq, Quantum Threat FUD, and the unique premium phenomenon in the Korean market. we need to distinguish the 'signal' from the 'noise' behind the data to make a sober judgment on whether the current decline is a prelude to a structural breakdown or an opportunity to buy at historic lows.

2. macroeconomic and fundamental analysis: correlation breakdown and realignment

2.1 The decoupling of Nasdaq and Bitcoin: the birth of a new correlation?

one of the most powerful formulas that has dominated the cryptocurrency market since 2020 has been the "Bitcoin is a Leveraged Nasdaq" thesis. when the tech-heavy Nasdaq index rises, Bitcoin rises even more, and when it falls, it falls even deeper. However, in the second half of 2025, cracks in this well-established correlation are being detected.

according to the data, the decoupling between the Nasdaq index and the price of Bitcoin became apparent on October 15, 2025, when the Nasdaq was performing well, rising 0.4% on a weekly basis, while Bitcoin fell 3.7%, triggering $524 million in liquidations. this was attributed to funds in traditional financial markets (TradFi) shifting into risk management mode and being the first to exit ultra-risky asset classes like cryptocurrencies.

however, more recent data from November shows a more interesting pattern. as bitcoin plunged below $100,000, the stock prices of companies like MicroStrategy (MSTR), which hold large amounts of bitcoin, plunged sharply in excess of bitcoin's decline, again showing strong downward synchronization. this suggests that investors are treating Bitcoin and related proxy stocks in the same risk basket, and along with the possibility that the decoupling was a temporary phenomenon, it reminds us of the old adage in financial markets that in a bear market, the correlation coefficients of all assets converge to 1.

decoupling nasdaq bitcoin correlation h1 2025 bullish super Bullish

0.68 (positive correlation )

mid-October 2025 flat/slightly higher down (liquidation occurred)

decoupling occurred

as of November 2025 correction sharp decline (bear market entry)

recoupling is underway

this change in correlation is not unrelated to the macro backdrop of the escalating US-China trade conflict.the uncertainty of a trade war boosts the value of the dollar as a safe haven asset, while also stimulating a flight to safety across risky assets. contrary to expectations of Bitcoin's ability to hedge as "digital gold," the market currently treats it as a highly liquid speculative asset, exposing its vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks.

2.2 Reversal of ETF flows and institutional exodus

a key driver of the bull market in 2024 and early 2025 was the inflow of institutional money into U.S. spot exchange traded funds (ETFs), but on-chain data now clearly shows that this driver has dried up.

according to analysis by CryptoQuant and others, the growth of Bitcoin holdings in US-based ETFs has slowed dramatically, from around 441,000 BTC on October 10 to around 271,000 BTC as of mid-November. this suggests that not only has new money stopped flowing in, but that some of the institutional money that had previously entered is exiting the market to take profits or place stop losses.

even more concerning is the decline in 'Average Order Size' in the spot market. this means that not only institutions but also retail investors are not buying the dip. normally, in a bear market, we see a pattern of institutions or whales picking up volume at the lows, but this line of defense is missing right now. The thin order book is contributing to increased volatility, where even a small amount of selling volume can cause prices to drop significantly.

2.3 Geopolitical Risk and Stablecoin Liquidity

rising trade tensions between the US and China are a double-edged sword for crypto markets. on the one hand, it can highlight the instability of the fiat system, making Bitcoin's scarcity stand outbut on the other hand, it can also squeeze global liquidity, depressing asset markets across the board.

in particular, the change in exchange inflow patterns for stablecoins since October 10 is noteworthy. stablecoin flows to exchanges that are primarily used for spot purchases have decreased, while flows to derivatives exchanges have increased. this indicates that market participants are focusing on speculative trading or hedging using leverage in the futures market, rather than buying spot and holding it for the long term. In other words, the quality of the market is deteriorating, and the environment is ripe for more short-term price volatility.

3. the specificity of the Korean market: kimchi premium and isolated liquidity

3.1 Structural causes and current status of the kimchi premium

when analyzing the Korean cryptocurrency market, the "Kimchi Premium" is a key indicator of market sentiment and structural limitations that goes beyond simple price differentials. the Kimchi Premium is a phenomenon where cryptocurrency prices on South Korean exchanges such as Upbit are higher than those on international exchanges such as Binance. as of November 22, 2025, the Kimchi Premium is estimated to be around 2.5% to 3.5%, despite the bear market.

the underlying reason for this premium is South Korea's strict foreign exchange regulations. the Foreign Exchange Transaction Act places significant restrictions on individuals or companies sending money abroad to arbitrage, which blocks the mechanism by which cheap Bitcoin from abroad can flow into the South Korean market and narrow the price gap. as a result, the South Korean market takes on a "Galapagos" characteristic, isolated from international markets and driven by its own supply and demand logic.

3.2 Interpreting the kimchi premium in a bear market

normally, in a bull market, the kimchi premium would soar to 10% or more due to buying frenzy. However, in the current bear market, the premium remaining in the 2-3% range can be interpreted in two ways.

  1. ant investors' bargain hunting: It is possible that Korean investors are defending the speed at which prices are falling in overseas markets. korean investors traditionally favor high volatility and are more likely to perceive a downturn as an opportunity to buy low.

  2. liquidity with no way out: Even if local investors sell their coins held in KRW, it's difficult to convert them to dollars and take them out of the country, leaving funds trapped inside the exchange. this can act as a cushion to mitigate downward shocks, but also as a potential bribe to trigger more panic when the market crashes.

in particular, it's worth noting that the recent surge in KRW trading volume against the dollar has increased the currency's influence in global markets. this suggests that the kimchi premium has become more than just a local indicator, but a secondary indicator for diagnosing overheating or downturns in global markets.

3.3 The 'Han River' meme and social indicators

the most revealing indicators of the psychological state of the Korean market are social phenomena, so-called "human indicators". we're seeing signs of a repeat of what happened during the LUNA crisis in 2022, when portal sites saw a spike in searches for "Mapo Bridge" and communities were flooded with self-help memes like "Han River Gazua".

data analysts categorize this period of extreme pessimism as the "Capitulation" phase. when the public flee the markets in panic, and extreme words like suicide are mentioned, it can paradoxically be a sign that the bottom is near. this is the basis for 'fear buying', which is brutal but has been proven by the long history of financial markets.

4. technical analysis in-depth report (based on Upbit BTC/KRW)

4.1 The truth behind Moving Averages and the Death Cross

the death cross that occurred on November 17, 2025 is currently the most concerning signal in technical analysis. a death cross is when the 50-day moving average (50 SMA), a short-term trend line, breaks through the 200-day moving average (200 SMA), a long-term trend line, from top to bottom.

  • historical backtesting:

    • june 2021: After the deathcross , Bitcoin plunged to 50% of its high and entered a long correction. this case supports that death crosses are strong sell signals that confirm a trend reversal.

    • march 2020: A death cross occurred during the pandemic shock, but it acted as a "bear trap" for a V-shaped bounce. Bitcoin has since rallied nearly 1,000%.

  • diagnosis of the current situation: The current deathcross is following a pattern more similar to the 2021 episode. the downward slope of the 50-day moving average is very steep, and the price has already been below the 200-day moving average for a long time, which means that the medium-term trend has shifted to the downside, rather than just a temporary correction. however, since the Death Cross is a lagging indicator, by the time the signal is confirmed, the price may have already fallen considerably. Therefore, a mechanical sell at this point also carries the risk of being a 'stop loss at the bottom'.

4.2 RSI (Relative Strength Index) and Divergence analysis

on the daily chart of Upbit, the RSI is currently near the oversold zone below 30. However, a low RSI does not necessarily mean an immediate bounce. We should pay attention to the 'divergence' here.

pattern description current market condition interpretation general Bullish Divergence (Bullish Divergence) price makes new highs, but RSI lows are higher unobserved difficult to confirm the bottom. buying forces have not yet entered. hidden Bearish Divergence price makes lower highs, but RSI makes higher highs

observed

indicates a continuation of a downtrend. selling pressure will be strong on a technical rebound. general Bearish Divergence (Bearish Divergence) higher price highs, but lower RSI highs occurred in the past

occurred around the 125K high, foreshadowing the current bear market.

the current chart continues to show a bearish trend where the RSI fails to bounce back meaningfully despite the price decline, especially when the RSI fails to break above 50 (neutral) on a bounce attempt, indicating that buying momentum is extremely fragile.

4.3 Bollinger Bands and volatility

the Bollinger Bands are currently in an 'Expansion' phase, where the candlesticks are moving down the Lower Band, which is called a 'Band Walk'. this is a classic plunge pattern, meaning that volatility is exploding to the downside. although the price has the propensity to retrace back to the center line of the band (the 20-day moving average), the center line is currently acting as a strong resistance and denying the candle entry.

4.4 Key support and resistance levels

  • resistance: Initially , the $90,000 level will act as a strong barrier of resistance. This former support level has been transformed into a "rogue selling zone" with layers of sellers.breaking through it will require massive volume.

  • support: The last bastion the market has to defend at the moment is $85,000. technical analysis suggests that if this price level is broken, the next support could be pushed down to the $72,000 to $75,000 range. in between, there is an "air pocket" with no significant buying interest, and there is a significant risk of accelerated panic selling.

5. behind the scenes of derivatives markets: funding costs and clearing dynamics

while the spot market determines the 'direction' of prices, the futures market determines the 'speed' and 'volatility' of prices. data from the current derivatives market shows that market fear is at an all-time high.

5.1 The Funding Rate Turns Negative and What It Means

the Funding Rate is a balancing device to align the price of Perpetual Futures contracts with the spot price. when the funding rate is positive (+), long positions (buyers) pay interest to short positions (sellers), and vice versa when it is negative (-).

currently, we are seeing Bitcoin funding rates on major exchanges going negative (-) or converging to zero.

  • interpretation: This means that market participants are overwhelmingly holding short positions betting on further declines. short position holders are betting on a decline even while paying interest.

  • potential reversal: Paradoxically , a deep negative funding ratio can be a precursor to a 'short squeeze'. if the price rebounds slightly against expectations, short position holders may be forced to rush to buy to cover their losses, which could trigger a price spike and start a chain reaction of liquidating more short positions.

5.2 Liquidation Map and Open Interest

open interest decreased significantly during the October crash, but during the recent downturn, we've seen a pattern of "downward open interest growth" where open interest has increased again. this suggests that new funds are coming in to build short positions.

analyzing the liquidation data, we estimate that there is a large volume of short position closures around $90,000 and a cluster of long position stops in the $80,000-$85,000 range. smart money tends to touch these liquidity-rich zones to trigger forced liquidations and then determine direction, so be wary of panic selling by the "long squeeze" that would occur in the event of an $85,000 breakdown.

6. long-term risk analysis: The reality of quantum computer scaremongering (Quantum FUD)

in the wake of the recent bear market, the fear (FUD) that quantum computers can defeat Bitcoin's security has resurfaced. the claim is that Bitcoin's private key generation algorithm, elliptic curve cryptography (ECDSA), can be broken by quantum computers' Shor's Algorithm.

6.1 Technical fact check

  • number of qubits needed: To crack Bitcoin's encryption, an error-corrected quantum computer with millions of qubits or more of computing power would be required. However, the most advanced quantum computers developed by IBM and Google are currently only a few hundred qubits and have not even fully solved the noise (error) problem.

  • timeline: Physicists and cryptographers predict that it will be at least a decade or two before we have a quantum computer that can threaten Bitcoin. even with Moore's Law, it's not a threat that will materialize as soon as 2025.

6.2 Bitcoin's ability to respond

if the quantum threat does materialize, the Bitcoin network is not helpless.

  1. introduce quantum-resistant cryptography: The Bitcoin community and developers are already working on a post-quantum signature algorithm, and a soft fork could upgrade the protocol before the threat becomes visible.

  2. the addressing scheme is secure: Bitcoin addresses (P2PKH) are a hash of the public key, so addresses with no public key revealed (i.e., addresses that have never made a withdrawal) are relatively safe from quantum computer attacks.

in conclusion, linking the current price decline to the quantum computer threat is unduly fear-mongering, and it makes sense to focus on the inherent supply and demand issues and macroeconomic factors in the market.

7. what's ahead and how to respond to each scenario

the direction all the data is pointing is 'chaos'. technical indicators warn of further declines, but oversold signals and funding costs leave open the possibility of a rebound. investors should be prepared for three scenarios

scenario A: Defend $85K and short squeeze (30% probability)

  • unfold: A bounce with a tailwind, with strong buying coming in from the $85K support. a sharp short covering occurs as negative funding costs are unwound.

  • signals: A white candle with volume , RSI breaking out of oversold territory, and re-coupling with the Nasdaq (rising with the Nasdaq on a rebound).

  • reaction: Enter a split buy near $85 ,000. targets are $90,000 on the first leg and $95,000 on the second leg.

scenario B: Support breakdown and L-shaped downtrend (50% probability)

  • development: $85 ,000 support breaks down without force. temporary support is found at the $80,000 level, but the bounce is weak and the cascading decline continues.

  • signals: Deepening moving average reversal after death cross completion, continued ETF outflows, unusual contraction in kimchi premium (loss of interest).

  • reaction: Maximize cash allocation. don't jump the gun; wait until the $72,000-$75,000 area before considering a split long.

scenario C: Black Swans and Systemic Risk (20% probability)

  • unfolding: US-China trade war escalates to all-out war, major crypto company goes bankrupt, etc. bitcoin collapses to $70,000.

  • reaction: Step back from the market and prepare for a prolonged crypto winter.

8. conclusion and Buy Recommendation Score

it's November 22, 2025, and the crypto market is on thin ice. the death toll is fear-inducing, and the macroeconomics are not favorable. But as they say, "the darkest hour is just before sunrise," and extreme fear paradoxically breeds opportunity. the current data points to a "conservative wait-and-see" rather than an "aggressive buy," and a "thorough split" rather than a "all in.

[Comprehensive Buy Recommendation Scorecard]

evaluation Criteria weighting score (out of 100) core Rationale technical Analysis 30 25 death cross, falling bandwidth, bearish RSI. strong selling dominance. fundamentals/on-chain 30 40 ETF outflows, miner selling pressure. However, long-term holder ratio is good. sentiment 20 80 extreme Fear. a buy signal from a contrarian investment perspective. macroeconomics (Macro) 20 30 higher interest rates, trade war risks. avoidance of risky assets. total Score 100 41.5 [Neutral/Wait & See]

final Verdict:Wait & See. until the $85,000 support is confirmed, we do not recommend rushing into the trade. this is a time when protecting your capital is more important than chasing profits. don't get caught up in the noise of the market, and focus on the real signals that price is sending.

[Disclaimer] This report is an analysis based on the data provided, and investments are made at your own risk. market conditions can change in real time.