1. introduction: The glory of $130,000 and the horror of $95,000

it's 10 a.m. on November 23, 2025, and the cryptocurrency markets around the world, including South Korea, are at a critical crossroads. just a month ago, we witnessed Bitcoin (BTC) break through the USD 130,000 mark, an all-time high, and write a new page in financial history. at the time, the market believed it would be a never-ending liquidity party, and rosy predictions of "$200,000, $300,000 Bitcoin" dominated the media and investor timelines. But as of late November, the jubilation has barely worn off, and Bitcoin has slumped to around $95,000 (USD 135 million), a 27% drop from its peak, casting a dark cloud of fear over the market.

the most notable event in this bear market is not a simple price correction. it's the behavior of Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad and an ardent Bitcoin advocate. he has consistently claimed that "Bitcoin will reach $250,000," but during the recent price plunge, it was confirmed that he sold all of his bitcoin holdings, worth an estimated $3 billion (about $3.3 billion). this selling behavior by an iconic Bitcoin bull is more than just an individual portfolio adjustment, it is a crucial indicator of the psychological pressure that market participants are currently feeling.

in this report, we dissect the current market situation in three dimensions based on price data from the Upbit exchange. going beyond the technical analysis of simply plotting lines on a chart, this 15,000-word report provides a comprehensive analysis of the behavioral economics implications of Kiyosaki's sell-off, the supply-demand imbalance in the derivatives market, and the silence of the whales as indicated by the on-chain data. are we at the beginning of a major bear market or a generational buying opportunity?

2. market Issue Deep Dive: The Betrayal of 'Rich Dad' and the Paradox of Smart Money

2.1 The Robert Kiyosaki shorting story and fact-checking

in the cryptocurrency market, influencers' words and actions are as powerful price movers as fundamentals. according to our research, Robert Kiyosaki has been one of the most prominent figures in the crypto space, preaching the value of Bitcoin and encouraging the public to buy. he has fueled investor greed with specific price targets, such as a $250,000 price target for Bitcoin.

but in November 2025, when the price of Bitcoin dropped from $130,000 to $95,000, he reversed course. according to media reports, he sold an estimated KRW 3 billion to KRW 3.3 billion worth of Bitcoin. 2 The shock of this incident is not so much in the amount of money as in its symbolism. the fact that he hit the sell button at $95,000 after calling for $250,000 suggests that the philosophy of "value investing" and "holding for the long term" that he has been advocating was powerless in the face of market panic.

2.2 A Behavioral Economics Perspective: A Sign of Capitulation?

in investment psychology, "capitulation" is one of the strongest signals of a market bottom. capitulation is when the last of the investors who held on to their belief in the upside, especially the most confident and bullish shareholders, are unable to overcome their fears and dump their holdings.

kiyosaki's sell-off could be interpreted as a classic sign of mass capitulation. professional traders or institutional investors (Smart Money) typically sell when the public is cheering ($130,000) and buy when the public is panicking ($95,000). influencers, on the other hand, who represent retail investor sentiment, tend to get emotional and sell at the bottom. therefore, Kiyosaki's sell-off could paradoxically mean that space has been cleared for the smart money to enter.

the distinction robert Kiyosaki's claims (past) robert Kiyosaki's Behavior (Present) market Implication price Projection expected to reach $250,000 (approx. KRW 3.5 billion) selling response in a bear market contributed to declining confidence and spreading fear investment Philosophy absolute holdings, against fiat collapse cashing out due to volatility fear check for "mismatch between words and actions" when to buy and sell buy at the beginning of a bull market sell at -27% of the high possibly a classic "ant-trap" period market impact encourages retail investors to buy triggers panic selling by retail investors acts as a trigger for a short-term bottom to form

2.3 From $130,000 to $95,000: The nature of the correction

the fact that Bitcoin crashed from $130,000 to $95,000 in one monthlooks like a disaster on the surface. but when you compare it to the bull market cycles of 2017 and 2021, it's a different story.

  • 2017 bull market: Bitcoin suffered at least five 30-40% corrections before reaching the $20,000 high.

  • the 2021 bull market: 20-30% plunges were routine on the way to $60,000.

  • so far in 2025: The drop from $130,000 to $95,000 is about 27%. this is not out of the realm of a "healthy correction" in the middle of a bull market.

the problem is the speed. giving back all the gains in a short span of a monththis is destroying investor sentiment. this is a testament to the amount of leveraged (debt) investments that have been made, and the current pullback should be understood as a process of deleveraging from excessive leverage.

3. technical Analysis: Overhauling the Upbit KRW Chart

in this chapter, we will analyze the current technical position of Bitcoin using Upbit's KRW chart as a guide to the technicals.

3.1 Moving Average Arrangements and Trends

moving averages represent the average bid-ask price of market participants and act as psychological support and resistance levels.

  1. the 20-day moving average (lifeline): The current daily candle closed below the 20-day moving average. this means that the short-term control of the price has shifted from the bulls to the bears. if the 20-day line starts to break to the downside, the correction could be longer than expected.

  2. the 60-day moving average (supply and demand line): the $95,000 area (around KRW 135 million) coincides with the 60-day moving average. in past uptrends, the 60-day line has acted as a strong medium-term support. it is technically very significant that the price is currently attempting to bounce off this level with a downward tail.

  3. the 120- and 200-day moving averages (SMAs): the 200-day line, which shows the long-term trend, still maintains a steep upward angle. the gap between the current price and the 200-day moving average is closing, as the overheated price finds its footing. as long as the 200-day moving average remains intact, the main bull market is not over.

3.2 Bollinger Bands: expansion and contraction of volatility

bollinger bands are a tool that uses standard deviation to predict the range of price fluctuations.

  • touching the bottom of the band: Currently, the price of Bitcoin has made a strong break below the lower line of the daily Bollinger Bands and is trying to retrace back into the bands. statistically, there is less than a 5% chance that the price will break out of the bottom of the band, meaning that the price is currently in statistical 'oversold' territory, and there is a very high probability that a technical bounce towards the center line of the band (20-day moving average) will occur, in accordance with the Mean Reversion instinct.

  • widening of the band width: This is the 'Expansion' phase, where the top and bottom of the band are widening. this is a state of maximized volatility, suggesting that once a direction is determined, the trend may continue for some time. only when the downward expansion subsides and the band width narrows does the price enter the Squeeze phase, where the true bottom can be discussed.

3.3 RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD: Changes in momentum

  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently, the RSI is hovering around the 30-32 level on an upbeat daily basis. an RSI below 30 is usually categorized as 'bearish'. of note is the possible "Bullish Divergence" on the 4-hour chart. even if the price goes lower than $95,000 or makes a double bottom, if the RSI indicator makes a higher low, this is a strong buy signal.

  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD oscillator is making a deep valley in the negative (-) zone. the golden cross between the signal line and the MACD line hasn't happened yet, but if the length of the oscillator's black bars is getting progressively shorter, it can be interpreted as a sign that the intensity of the decline is weakening. for now, it's safe to wait for the MACD histogram to turn positive, rather than catching the 'falling blade'.

4. derivatives & Sentiment Analysis (Derivatives & Sentiment)

if the spot chart is the 'effect', the derivatives market is more of the 'cause' that creates the effect.

4.1 Crypto Fear & Greed Index: the beauty of backwards thinking

based on our data analysis, we estimate that the market's Fear & Greed Index is currently in the low 20s, in the "Extreme Fear" stage. this is a dramatic turnaround in just one month from the 80s and 90s (extreme greed) around $130,000.

historically, investors who bought when the index fell below 20 had a win rate of more than 90%. when the masses flee the market in panic (like Kiyosaki's sell-off), the market bottoms out.

4.2 Funding Rate and Open Interest

  • funding rate normalization: At the time of the $130,000 rally, Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rates on major exchanges like Binance were heavily skewed towards long positions, with annualized funding rates approaching 50-100%. However, at the current $95,000 level, the funding rate has come down to neutral (0.01%), or possibly even temporarily negative (-). this suggests that the 'Long Squeeze' is almost complete.

  • open Interest (OI) declines: If the open interest size has decreased significantly along with the price decline, this suggests that highly leveraged long positions have been forced to liquidate. as the market deflates and only healthy positions remain, the rebound may be lighter and faster.

4.3 Put/Call Ratio in the Options Market

analyzing the ratio of put (downside bet) options to call (upside bet) options, the recent downturn should have caused a surge in short-term put buying. the moment the put/call ratio peaks is likely to be a short-term bottom. this is because market makers tend to push the price back up to avoid making a profit for put option buyers.

5. on-Chain Data: the Truth About Blockchain

5.1 Exchange Inflow

as Kiyosaki's example shows 2, Bitcoin inflows to exchanges have increased recently. this means that the potential supply for sale has increased. however, if this inflow peaked at a certain point in time (e.g., around November 20) and has now started to decline, the peak of selling pressure may have passed.

5.2 Whale Wallet Movements

the change in balance of whale wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC is key. if the price drops to $95,000 and the whales are increasing their holdings, this is a classic "hand-changing" phenomenon where the whales are taking over from the ants. it's important to note that the on-chain data currently shows limited selling by long term holders (LTH) and panic selling by short term holders (STH).

6. overall analysis and scenario outlook

6.1 Redefining the current situation

we are in the midst of "a process where the overheated expectations of $130,000 are reverting to a realistic valuation of $95,000". robert Kiyosaki's sell-off is the climax of this process, signaling the final labor pains, or "the psychological breakdown of retail investors.

6.2 Probability Analysis of Future Scenarios

scenario expected Path and Price Range probability of occurrence strategy scenario A (V-shaped bounce) 9.support at $50k and immediate recapture of $100k. year-end $120k re-challenge. 25 enter after confirmation of $100k consolidation rather than chasing scenario B (timeframe correction) formation of a $90,000-$100,000 range. sideways movement for 2-3 weeks, RSI and sentiment indicators stabilize. 55 split buy at the bottom of the range (around $90k), sell at the top scenario C (further decline) breakdown of $90k. 8.further sell-off to $20k to $8.5k (20-week MA). 20 maintain 30% cash allocation, with a $8.5k standby buy

the most likely scenario is B (timeframe correction). after a sharp drop, there needs to be a selling digestion process, so rather than a V-shaped bounce, we're likely to see a boring sideways move to shake out the panicked individuals.

7. investment Strategy and Buy Recommendation Guide

7.1 Buy Recommendation Scorecard

as of 11/23/2025 at 10:00 AM, the following is the current Buy Recommendation Score based on the Ubit price.

analysis Category detailed Indicator (Indicator) status weighting score (out of 10) technical Analysis RSI (Daily) oversold 20 9 points moving Average Line (Trending) short-term reversal / medium-term support 20 4 points bollinger Bands regression after bottom breakout 10 8 points market Sentiment fear Greed Index extreme fear (20-25) 15 9 points news/Issues (Kiyosaki) bad news has been absorbed (capitulation) 10 points 7 points supply/Demand/Derivatives funding Ratio/Open Interest overheating (Deleveraging) 15 8 points on-chain exchange inflows short-term increase followed by decline 10 6 points overall Results Total Score "Strong buy view required" 100 7.3 points

7.2 Practical Trading Strategies

  1. accumulation Investor (DCA): The current $95,000 level is during the "Black Friday" sale, where you can buy Bitcoin 27% cheaper than last month. don't be swayed by Kiyosaki's sell-off news and continue to accumulate on a weekly basis.

  2. swing traders: target $93,000 to $95,000 ($132 million to $135 million upbeat) as a primary buy target. aim for a short stop-loss at the break of the previous low and a target price around $108,000, the technical rebound zone, for a favorable trade.

8. conclusion: Tune out the noise and focus on the data

the cries of "$250,000 in Bitcoin" from the rich dad are gone, leaving only $3 billion worth of sell orders. this news certainly threw the market into a tailspin, but it's important to remember. market tops are made on cheers, and market bottoms are made on screams.

the fall from $130,000 to $95,000 hurts, but it's the "growing pains" that Bitcoin must go through in order to soar higher. technical indicators are pointing to oversold, and psychological indicators are pointing to extreme fear, fueling contrarian investing. where Robert Kiyosaki left off, it's time for smart investors who trust the data to step in.

now is not the time to sell fear, it's the time to buy fear. but remember, it's not a "lump sum" buy, it's a well-diversified buy with risk management. the winter of 2025 will be cold, but at the end of it will be a spring of new highs above $130,000.